( 46) Disarm 19. Bob Baffert's highly regarded Spielberg, a gutty runner-up in two summertime starts, looms the horse to beat in Saturday's Grade I, $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park.For 2-year-olds at a mile and one sixteenth, the American Pharoah has attracted a field of eight. Espinoza, Skinner playing waiting game for Ky. Derby Kentucky Derby betting terms:Everything you need to know about placing an online bet. Forte 6. Kentucky Derby Contender Birth Dates, and a Live Longshot colts and geldings carry 126 pounds (57 kg); fillies 121 pounds (55 kg) . Justify has four Grade 1 wins to date. Justify first attracted attention with a win in his debut race on February 18, 2018. Out of the winning Yes It's True mare Thin Disguise, he is a half brother to grade 3 winner Holiday Disguise, stakes winner Midnight Disguise and grade 1-placed Forest Caraway. He earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure for the gate-to-wire victory, the highest by any 3-year-old in 2022. 174 West Will Power 5. Horse Track Dist Date 106 VALIANT NATURE . So How Great Is American Pharoah? - Horse Network Dr. Fager was going to have to carry 130. Benoit told me that he was given the unenviable task of having to call Nerud to tell him that Dr. Fager would be carrying 130 pounds instead of 124. The greater the number, the faster the horse was that race. He has produced. Verifying showed no signs of distance limitations in his losing effort. American Pharoah had to battle better talent (in my opinion) in Dortmund, Frosted and Keen Ice. Fager was a singular performer as a 4-year-old in 1968, Charles Hatton wrote in the American Racing Manual. Some believe they are nothing but empty numbers. The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022). (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who werent either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.) candace faulkner age; water boiling point fahrenheit. But every other horse in the top seven made at least 23 starts. Careers | Perhaps Justify and McKinzie will meet up in the same race sometime in August or September. Beyer Speed Figures - What are they? - Bet Thoroughbreds It usually takes a triple-digit BSF to win the Kentucky Derby. His 1:32 1/5 clocking shaved two-fifths of a second off the world record for one mile set by Buckpasser two years earlier at Arlington. The ability to bring winners to market really spurs the sales energy. Talladega was consigned by ELiTE, agent for WinStar Racing. Today was very positive. Obviously the racing surface at Tampa Bay Downs that day was playing slightly faster. Forbidden Kingdom also turned back a trio of Baffert-trained colts in the race,. The 149th Kentucky Derby (G1) presented by Woodford Reserve will be run on Saturday, May 6, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. +. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.) Dr. 53 Confidence Game, watch Dr. Fagers victory in the 1968 Californian on YouTube, Jon White: Beyer Figures vis-a-vis the Kentucky Derby. It is tough to pull off a Triple Crown championship. 2022 Kentucky Derby Watch: Baffert and the top 10 contenders Is betting him to win at such a short price a good idea? Hondo In the Run for the Roses, Mr. Aitch will put four units on Exaggerator to win .. and mix in a 4-horse $1 triple box with Exaggerator, Creator, Nyquist and Oscar Nominated. Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Beyers numbers arent based solely on how fast a horse runs in a race. On the top right is a breakdown of a horse's career statistics, broken down by year as well as how it has fared on different surfaces. 215 Stilleto Boy (3) 3. (190) Forte 2. Promiseher America will depart New York on Sunday and is scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs early Monday morning. But I do think it is reasonable to compare both horses after three legs of the Triple Crown. Any use of this information in violation of federal, state, provincial or local laws is Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. 91 In Italian 10. 2. The fact that only one of the last 31 Kentucky Derby winners went into the race with a declining Beyer Speed Figure pattern similar to Fortes is, to me, a big red flag for Forte. Nowak's pick for Kentucky Derby is Mohaymen - sfgate.com . American Pharoah impresses in Preakness | Daily Racing Form The best NFL Draft landing spots for Kentucky quarterback Will Levis, ranked. It's also worth noting if the jockey has ridden the horse before, and how successful they've been together, or if it's the first time. As I see it, another negative for Forte in the Kentucky Derby is hes been unable to be first or second a furlong out in both of his last two starts. Its fun to keep doing it every year., Probable:Dr Ardito (Chad Brown), Expressman (Todd Pletcher), Repo Rocks (Jamie Ness), Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens), White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph, Jr.), Probable:Amazing Grace (Christophe Clement), Atomic Blonde (Clement), Higher Truth (Brown), Mylady (Brown), Virginia Joy (Brown), Possible: Spirit And Glory (Robert Falcone, Jr.), Probable:City Man (Clement), Dynadrive (Tom Morley), Fort Washington (Shug McGaughey), Ocean Atlantique (Mike Maker), Ottoman Fleet (Charlie Appleby), Rockemperor (Brown), Tide of the Sea (Morley), Probable: Hot Fudge (Linda Rice), Mommasgottarun (Rice), Signal From Noise (Brown), Timeless Journey (Ray Handal), Possible: Idiomatic (Brad Cox), Kathleen O. Philip Gleaves, Steven Crist, Ken deRegt and Bryan Hilliard's New York-bred Thin White Duke and Gleaves, Joseph Straus, Jr., and Hugh Fitzsimons' Yes and Yes both made their seasonal debut in an April 13 optional claimer sprinting six furlongs over the Aqueduct outer turf, finishing a respective fifth and fourth with off-the-pace trips. On 2016s Derby trail, the top number was the 103 earned by Exaggerator in his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Trainer Ray Handal will saddle Merrylegs Farm's homebred Listentoyourheart, who ran a field-best 100 Beyer Speed Figure in a last-out seven-furlong state-bred allowance event on April 7 at the Big A. Trainer, breeder and co-owner Michelle Nevin's seasoned veteran My Boy Tate will vie for a seventh stakes victory. This colt has been second to Cave Rock in the grade 1 American Pharoah and third to Forte and Cave Rock in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. ( 64) Raise Cain 10. (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Laoban would get in first, then Cherry Wine if a second horse scratches. beyer speed figures 2022 Since the figures began being published in 1991, seven Kentucky Derby winners had the best Beyer among all Derby entrants in their last-outs, i.e. The only exceptions were his debut against a maiden field that later proved strong last year at Del Mar, plus the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. 90 Two Phils 8. For me, the standard by which to judge 3-year-olds the last 143 years has been the Triple Crown. And I think he has a few more big wins left in the tank. Please visit gambleaware.co.uk or gamcare.org.uk for guidelines on responsible gaming. Barbara D. Livingston Justify, under Mike Smith, wins the Belmont Stakes to become the 13th Triple Crown winner and remain unbeaten after six starts. I will state up front that Justify has much more to accomplish to elevate himself above American Pharoah. Jon White: Beyer Figures vis-a-vis the Kentucky Derby Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Consigned by Highgate Sales, agent, he is out of Unicorn Girl, a winning daughter of A. P. Five Hundred. (invite) Continuar* 21. A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. Note: No. . That boosted his total to 46 points, putting him into Kentucky Derby 149. Two have a 95 figure to their credit. Fortes declining Beyer Speed Figure pattern piqued my curiosity. It was more of a thank you for Keeneland for all these years of being kind to me.. (160) Practical Move 3. Last year, American Pharoah, he was exceptional. (150) Tapit Trice 5. It is so hard to buy a yearling in September, Lanigan said. I really didnt have any big intention on selling her, Ward said. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. He proved a punctual 2-1 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile contest, edging 7-2 Arabian Lion by a half-length. The field of 20 at this time is comprised of the the 19 leading point earners, plus Continuars invitation through the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. The son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense also received a 94 Beyer for his half-length victory in the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) Feb. 6 at Santa Anita in his previous start. I dont look too much at that.. So their best speed figures are yet to come. Still, he did not need to go to war with a great pacesetter such as Life Is Good. Her Beyer Speed Figure was 112, but that particular Classic was decided on a synthetic surface rather than on dirt. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunnys Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.) Materiality posted a 110 when he won the same race last year. And his speed figures have also improved with every race to the point where his Thoro-Graph number in the Withers has not been topped by any 3-year-old. Since his Del Mar Futurity (GI) win last fall, he reeled off nine consecutive Beyer Speed Figures at 100 or above. MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS) back in 1999. Because of the neck margin, both Tapit Trice and Verifying earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form. So whats the key to Kentuckys post-Will Levis offense? Beyer: American Pharoah : 1 1/16m (ft) SA 9/27: 99: 101: Bayerd : 6 f (ft) RP 9/28: 99: 93: Ostrolenka : 1 m (ft) BEL 9/28: 94: 90: Goodoldhockeygame : 6 f (ft) WO 9/27 . The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below: 2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3) 2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4* 2020 race run in September 2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3** 2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7 2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1 2016 Nyquist (0 strikes) 2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes) 2014 California Chrome (0 strikes) 2013 Orb (0 strikes) 2012 Ill Have Another (0 strikes) 2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes) 2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4 2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9 2008 Big Brown (0 strikes) 2007 Street Sense (0 strikes) 2006 Barbaro (0 strikes) 2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5 2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes) 2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8 2002 War Emblem (0 strikes) 2001 Monarchos (0 strikes) 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6 1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5 1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes) 1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4 1996 Grindstone (0 strikes) 1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes) 1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes) 1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5 1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes) 1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes) 1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3 1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes) 1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes) 1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2 1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4 1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes) 1984 Swale (0 strikes) 1983 Sunnys Halo (1 strike) Category 1 1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3 1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1 1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes) 1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes) 1978 Affirmed (0 strikes) 1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes) 1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes) 1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes) 1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4 1973 Secretariat (0 strikes) *Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money **Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEMS CATEGORIES What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? Will Justify be raced that long? American Pharoah wins Haskell Stakes (photo via Monmouth Park). He matched that 100 figure when he eked out a nose victory in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles. So how much does he have to carry? Benoit: 130. After a pause, Nerud only had this to say: It wont matter. The next thing Benoit heard was the click of the phone being hung up by Nerud. Street Sense recorded a 108 Beyer when he won the BC Juvenile by 10 lengths at Churchill Downs in his final start as a 2-year-old. Consequently, First Mission is expected to make his next start in the Preakness on May 20. In those years, the conditions for the 1 1/8-mile Californian were extremely complicated. I dont know if any horse could ever have beaten him up to a mile. For my birthday, I gave my mom to friends. 2019 Kentucky Derby Speed Figure Heat Map - In the Money Media One horse was able to use the Lexington as a means to get into the Kentucky Derby. American Pharoah won nine of his 11 races. A Derby rule meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. ; older 127 lbs. McKinzie was viewed as the early Derby favorite at the time of his injury and Bob Bafferts best 3-year-old. With two Triple Crown Champions having been crowned in the last three years, the comparisons between Justifyand American Pharoah have already started. It begins with the date, listed in day-month-year format. With his horses having earned $229,584,945, Baffert is into the top five all-time having recently passed the great Bobb Frankel's $227,912,709. Please confirm Justify's main competition has really come from two colts: Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic. I think its the marriage of both the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single Derby rule. A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. (Look for the abbreviation "Tr:" on the form to find a trainer's statistics.). I interviewed Baeza in 2006 at Santa Anita. paid $240,000 for Ocean City, a 3-year-old colt by American Pharoah , who is a half brother to champion Jackie's Warrior and on April 20 at Keeneland scored a 1 1/4-length . Based at Keeneland, Ward owns a farm next to the track where he privately stands Hootenanny, winner of the 2014 Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot in England and Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T). For context: The highest BSF since he created the system was a 133 by Groovy in 1987. That in itself is remarkable. the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and The Triple Crown winner notched a career-high 120 Beyer Speed Figure in his final race while also setting a Keeneland track record time of 2:00.07 for the rarely used 1 1/4-mile distance. Justify vs. American Pharoah: What Preakness Times Mean for the Belmont The Elusive Quality will be the first time Thin White Duke has raced at seven furlongs since May 2021, while Yes and Yes will contest at that distance for the first time since a win in a June optional claimer at Belmont. Bred by Hibiscus Stables, Funny How is a half-sister to multiple New York-bred stakes winner Funny Guy. Beyer Speed Figure question (Belmont) - Derby Trail Forums Also on the work tab for Handal was Merrylegs Farms New York homebredTimeless Journey, who went a half-mile in 50.77 over the training track. Flightline (horse) - Wikipedia This gives an indication how good the horse was on that day. I know Yes and Yes has a big affinity for Belmont, so it will be fun to get them back over here.. The Beyer Speed Figure (more on that below) is the bold number. When you go through all of them, Ragozin or Beyer youll find one of them that you like. Hoffman Thoroughbreds and Tom McCrocklinsPromiseher Americarecorded her final serious piece of work in preparation for the Grade 1, $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks on May 6 at Churchill Downs, when going a half-mile in 49.77 seconds over a fast Belmont Park training track. Pharoah had also run a 100-plus Beyer in his final prep race, the Arkansas Derby. Only time will tell. Braulio Baeza rode Dr. Fager in the Washington Park Handicap and in all of the headstrong 4-year-old colts other races that year other than his 1968 debut in which John Rotz was the pilot. In two of that years Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. Is there a potential Triple Crown winner in this years Kentucky Derby field? The talented David Donk-trained duo ofThin White DukeandYes and Yesare slated to make their return to stakes level in the $150,000 Elusive Quality, a seven-furlong turf sprint for older horses, on May 6 at Belmont Park. Has a filly ever won the preakness? - sempoa.jodymaroni.com Derma Sotogake 7. Carmel Road, who sold for $260,000 to Pedro Lanz, agent for KAS Stables, was runner-upin the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) to Practical Move, second on the list of leading point earners to the May 6Kentucky Derby (G1). 5 triple digit Beyer Speed Figures in 2018. Beyer said that if his figures were around in 1973, Secretariat would have earned a 139 Beyer for his Belmont Stakes victory. His highest weight that year and in his career was the 139 pounds he carried to a six-length victory in the seven-furlong Vosburgh Handicap, which was his final start. ( 40) Major Dude 25. Knowing how to decipher the form can make you a more informed bettor. His speed figures and final times in the Derby and Preakness were not among the sport's elite Those knocks were of course muted in the Belmont Stakes, Haskell and again in the Breeders' Cup where he produced an eye popping 120 Beyer speed figure for his 2:00.7 frolic, the highest number produced at a mile or more in North America this . Some people swear by the Beyer Speed Figures. Winners of $65,000 twice since September 1, 1967 to carry 3 lbs. Horseplayers without the Beyers would assume Destin was the quicker horse by about a length. Kentucky Derby trivia:Who has won the most Kentucky Derby races and other facts you should know. Justify (foaled March 28, 2015) is an American Thoroughbred racehorse who is known for being the thirteenth winner of the American Triple Crown.He also was the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old.. You just have to be the fastest horse in the race on Saturday. KENTUCKY DERBY POINT STANDINGS With all the races offering qualifying points now completed, the prospective field for the Kentucky Derby has taken shape. (The horses finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) 261 Practical Move (1) 4. Then study the distances the horse has run and the track conditions in the next column. He followed up with two more victories, including the . Out of Searchingforahero, by Officer, Hibernacle won her debut for trainer Wesley Ward, who also bred and owned her. This sale is a great initiative and it is well supported.. A horse with 2-1 odds is a strong favorite, whereas one with 80-1 odds, like last year's Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike, are longshots to win but present the biggest payout on a bet. The single-session sale, which grossed $6.7 million, recorded across-the-board increases over 2022. American Pharoah Etches His Name Among The Greatest of The Greats With Justifys breeding rights sold for a record $75 Million, I wouldnt count on it. Justify needs to race more. The effort was awarded an 87 Beyer Speed Figure. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.) Beyer Speed Figures; Wagering; PPs; Featured Tracks . American Pharoah Cements Status as All-Time Great with Breeders' Cup (123) Two Phils 6. When I dropped Forte from No. And Bolt dOro faded badly in his last start (his first against older foes) the Met Mile. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who will saddle Repole Stable and St. Elias Stables formidable multiple Grade 1-winner Forte in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby on May 6, will also bring a strong contender for Repole Stable to the May 5 Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks in the New York-bred Gambling Girl. LEXINGTON, Ky. -- After American Pharoah rolled to a win Saturday in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland, trainer Bob Baffert quipped, "You'll probably get that big Beyer you guys were looking for today. He had zero strikes. Dr. Fager finished second. Espinoza's up to 19th in earnings for jockeys at $185,008,725. The Triple Crown winner notched a career-high 120 Beyer Speed Figure in his final race while also setting a Keeneland track record time of 2:00.07 for the rarely used 1 1/4-mile distance.. Donk said the race was a good starting point for both horses. It was a very fast course over there that day and it was a good steppingstone. However, even if you attempt to adjust the raw fractional times to account for American Pharoah racing over a slower track, Justify still comes out as the faster horse over the final 7/16ths of a mile. This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. Travers Stakes 2022 predictions, odds: Horse racing expert who nailed Commissioner colt Commissioner Dan consigned as Hip 120 at the Keeneland April Selected Horses of Racing Age Sale. Longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer created the Beyer Speed Figures, first appearing in his groundbreaking handicapping book Picking Sportsbooks in 1975. Kentucky Derby 2015: Dortmund Leads Field of Contenders On the right of that lists the post position the horse started at and what position it was (and how many lengths back from first in the exponent) at each interval and at the finish. Peaceful Waters, who was consigned by Hunter Valley Farm, agent, is from the family of champion Soaring Softly, Grade 1 winner Plenty of Grace and Grade 2 winner Manitoulin. Which horses are quick out of the gate? Photo: Keeneland Photo/Photos by ZInto Mischief colt Talladega consigned as Hip 76 at theKeeneland April Selected Horses of Racing Age Sale, Hes just a lovely horse, said Tom Clark, who signed the ticket. Consignors are really happy; a lot of them were here today. This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. David Lanigan, agent for Heider Family Racing, paid $310,000 for Hibernacle, a 2-year-old filly by Hootenanny, who on April 12 won her debut by 7 1/2 lengths at Keeneland. Into Mischief colt Talladega consigned as Hip 76 at theKeeneland April Selected Horses of Racing Age Sale, Horse of the Year Havre de Grace Dies at 16, Confidence Game's Kentucky Derby Entry a 'Celebration', Wild On Ice Euthanized Following Derby Work, Godolphin Returns to Classic Stage With Two in KY Oaks, Commissioner Dan Goes for $500K to Top Keeneland Sale, Rocket Can Blasts Out Final Derby Drill for Mott, Reincarnate to be Starlight's 14th KY Derby Starter, Plus News, Analysis, Entries, Results & Replays, Wolfs Reflect on KY Derby Wins From Justify, Authentic, Three Things You Might Not Know About: Angel Of Empire, Catching Up With Old Friends: Silver Charm, Brad Cox Discusses Oaks Contender Wet Paint, Macadamia Holds off Quattroelle in Wilshire Stakes, Opinion: Gambling White Paper Lacks Real Action. Here's a guide to reading the racing form before the Kentucky DerbyatChurchill Downs: This is the numbers heavy area of the form and includes everything from the date of the race to the top three finishers. ( 54) Verifying 14. I think we will be fortunate to see him race two more times before he is retired. Commissioner Dan Goes for $500K to Top Keeneland Sale Copyright 2023 US Racing, All Rights Reserved.
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